Election Theory

I wanted to comment on a couple things.

Number one- current polls show the following unclear picture:

CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll shows Bush 50, Kerry 47 among "likely voters."
Newsweek shows Kerry leading 49 to 42.
RealClearPolitics average is Kerry by 2.3%

Let's all agree on something, okay? This race is 50-50. Coin flip. Even money. Dead even. Split right down the middle.

Every article I read is all about horse race- "bounce" "bump" "boost". Where is it? Is there one? Let it go, everyone. I know it is easier than actually analyzing say, a helath care plan, but leave the polls alone.

This race I think will be close, close, close, and break one way or the other late. This election is so event driven, more than any others recently. Iraq, a terrorist attack, world events...

Number two- 1980 all over again?
A few people have mentioned this (Chris Suellentrop in Slate, Jerry Springer! at the convention) and I wanted to pile on. In 1980, Ronald Reagan was challenging Jimmy Carter. People had decided they were unhappy with Carter, but not sure if they were ready to trust the country to Ronald Reagan (obviously no national experience, and many thought of him as just a B-movie actor). The race stayed very close until the debates, and after the first one, where Reagan seemed presidential, it broke his way. Of course Reagan won resoundingly.

Fast forward to today- I think people have decided they are not happy with Bush. The right-track/wrong track number is 39.4%. If 53.3% of the country think the country is moving in the worng direction, that is a tough number for the incumbent. However, we are in a war. We have troops all around the world right now fighting terror in some places, "nation building" in others. So, Kerry faces a high threshold for this election.

I think his convention made good progress towards this, as in the underlying issue-specific questions (Iraq, terrorism, economy, so forth) Kerry has improved his standings to Bush. These specific gains just have not moved his main number yet.

I also think Kerry made progress towards a comfort level with the American people. People know they will see the president on the TV in their living rooms for the next four years. The press tends to talk down the "Who would you rather have a beer with?" type questions, but they do matter. Kerry seemed to me more likeable and as I watched his speech Thursday, I thought...yeah, this guy could be president. I would be okay with that. Likeability matters, and while Kerry will never match Bush in this, he seemed a little more human after the week.

For the first time, I really think Kerry wins. 60-40 odds maybe?