Scott's Soapbox

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Quick Election Predictions

Democrats take Senate seats in: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Missouri. Plus retain New Jersey. In Missouri, the sleeper issue is stem-cell research- there is an item favoring it, with two-thirds support- also on the ballot which should help McCaskill prevail. She has a very strong ad featuring Parkinson's stricken Michael J. Fox highlighting this difference and it maybe enough.

They will lose close in Tennesee, which Harold Ford Jr. will lose despite his mostly brilliant campaign. It's too tough to overcome to so-called "poll tax" wherein black candidates end up getting a lower percentage of the vote than they do in polls. If the polls show it even, expect Ford to lose by 5. Sad but true. In Virginia, I expect George Allen survives- assuming, and this is a tough assumption right now with the way he's been going- that Allen does not manage to shoot himself in the foot again. This could change however- I bet there is one more shoe to drop in the Macaca/n-word affair.

So I predict the Dems gain a few seats but not enough to take control.

On the House, I think the Democrats take over despite the money advantage of the Repuiblicans and all the redistricting that's gone on. So many seats are in play here, so unlike the Senate, the Democrats do not have to run the table to gain control. A seat here, a seat there, and it flips.

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